Sunday, December 09, 2007
Opinion, Politics

In bed with the bomb

The new report is really a non-event

Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte jokes with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in February 2007.
CREDIT: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images

The announcement last week that the reassessment of the May 2005 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program revealed that the weaponry portion of the program had been abandoned in 2003 was met with a collective “ho-hum” by most of the Arab world. The new report is really a non-event.

The NIE, dated November 2007, states “For the purposes of this Estimate, by ‘nuclear weapons program’ we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work; we do not mean Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment.” Splitting hairs on whether Iran plans to use its uranium processing for nuclear weaponry or merely for generating electricity is like surmising whether a man intends to use his bed for sex or sleeping: It’s well-suited for either.

As Laura Holgate of the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative in Washington, D.C., told Popular Science earlier this year, “Once you have material, everything is easier. Our mantra is, ‘It’s the material, stupid.’” PopSci’s reporter went on to explain: “Scientists generally consider uranium consisting of more than 20 percent U-235 to be ‘highly enriched’ and suitable for a bomb, although uranium used in advanced nuclear-weapons programs and some nuclear reactors is enriched as much as 90 percent.”

A New York Times article dated 2004—well before the now-doubted May 2005 NIE assessment came out and after the Iranians allegedly stopped working on nuclear weaponry—reads: “Iran had some visible facilities but hid others for as long as 18 years. When they were discovered, Iran claimed their purpose was to produce civilian nuclear power. So the challenge for the international community is to determine Iran’s real intentions. Is the effort peaceful? Or is it meant to churn out weapons? [At Arak, Iran] plans at this site call for construction of a 40-megawatt heavy-water reactor, which nonproliferation experts say is geared more for the production of bomb fuel than for electricity. [In Isfahan] the uranium conversion facility here can be used to produce uranium hexafluoride, a gas whose production is a crucial step in making fuel for both civilian nuclear reactors and atom bombs. [In Natanz] centrifuges at the enrichment plant could be used not only to enrich uranium to the level needed to fuel nuclear reactors, but also to the level for nuclear weapons.” The Times cites the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) as its source.

David Albright of ISIS told the Voice of America in November 2006 that the type of civilian facilities Iran is using can easily be converted for military use: “The gas centrifuge plant that enriches uranium for civil purposes can be rapidly converted to make highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. So a gas centrifuge plant is inherently a nuclear weapons-capable facility.”

This explains why every European leader with the exception of Russia’s Putin has said, even after the release of the latest NIE, that they will continue to pressure Iran to back off its atomic aspirations. It also explains why the Arab media gave very little coverage to the new report. Al Arabiya barely mentioned it, in a skimpy little two-paragraph piece on Dec. 5. That same day, Al-Jazeera said only that the report may lessen pressure on the Arab world to unite with the U.S. in peace efforts surrounding Israel/Palestine because Arab states may be less afraid of attack by Iran.

According to Vanee Vines, spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, who spoke directly to The Sunday Paper, it was John Negroponte who originally assigned the reassessment of the May 2005 NIE on Iran. Negroponte is the predecessor of the current director, Mike McConnell. Readers may recall that Negroponte chose to leave the intelligence cabinet position to become Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s right hand man at the State Department early this year. The reassessment was supposed to be ready last spring, Vines says, but there were run-of-the-mill delays.

If it had come out last spring, I think the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis would still have happened. Much of Condi's diplomatic work has been overshadowed by reports that it is Arab fear of Iran that drove the gathering and I don't expect the new NIE to significantly lessen that fear. No one really believes Irans' beds are for sleeping. SP

Stephanie Ramage is news editor of The Sunday Paper.